99 Spring 2025 Proceedings crafted, and recently updated, to reflect new trends. Scenario 1, Networked to the Nines: This scenario focuses on a hyperconnected future in which nation-state actors pose an increasingly dangerous threat to the cyber sys- tems the U.S. economy depends on. There is rampant competition for resources, especially critical minerals, which drives territorial disputes over seabed mining. The U.S. military is growing overall, and has embraced human-machine teaming. An example of human- machine teaming is field research with autonomous surface vessels following a Coast Guard vessel, much like autonomous drones with onboard AI that fly along- side manned aircraft to scout ahead. However, the Coast Guard remains stretched thin across its diverse mission portfolio, to which a 12th statutory mission—economic security and protection—has been added. Scenario 2, Southern Discomfort: Environmental and social upheavals pose major operational and personnel chal- lenges to the Coast Guard. The United States simultane- ously faces increased frequency and magnitude of major storms along with a massive influx of irregular migra- tion activity. Across the nation, a major wave of resigna- tions makes it increasingly difficult for many companies and organizations, including the Coast Guard, to retain skilled personnel. Political schisms within California, Oregon, and Washington state lead to speculation about their possible succession. On the plus side, recycling processes have improved remarkably, driving eco- nomic growth in that sector. Relations with China have improved substantially since the low point in the 2020s. Scenario 3, I’ve Got the Power: The U.S. economy is strong, driven in part by a concerted effort to better har- ness renewable energy. Offshore wind and wave proj- ects have proven highly successful. However, increased demand for critical minerals causes tensions between seabed mining advocates and environmentalists who oppose the practice. Tensions are high with Russia and China, particularly in the space and maritime domains. The United States has reversed its declining birthrate trend with a new baby boom. Meanwhile, autonomous technology increasingly replaces human labor in many occupations. Scenario 4, Angst and Adaptation in the Americas: Geopolitical tension with China is acute, driven in part by China’s expansive fishing and resource harvesting practices in the high latitudes. AI-enhanced fishing practices have pushed many fisheries to the brink of collapse. DoD and DHS have reorganized, and the new U.S. Department of Homeland Defense places the Coast Guard and U.S. Customs and Border Protection in the same department as the Army, Air Force, Marine Corps, Navy, and Space Force. The United States has increased its presence in the Western Hemisphere to counter Chinese influence in the Caribbean and South America. AI is omnipresent across media and workplaces, contributing to a nationwide mental health crisis that has directly impacted the Coast Guard workforce. The United States is a primary destination for a surging global immigra- tion wave, adding large numbers of highly educated and skilled personnel to the U.S. workforce. These scenarios provide context for long-term plan- ning initiatives, force design, and investment priorities. Additionally, they help instill strategic thinking through their employment in a turn-based strategic game called Paratus Futurum that DCO-X and RAND facilitate for Coast Guard senior leaders and, more recently, in courses for midgrade officers and senior enlisted leaders taught by the Coast Guard Leadership Development Center. For more detailed information about the process for constructing the scenarios and the future worlds, visit https://bit.ly/EvergreenV. For more information Why Being an RDC Researcher is One of the Best Jobs in the Coast Guard The most important asset in a research center will always be its people. Yes, more research funding and a perma- nent top-notch facility would be great, but it is the talent that works closely together that will find creative ways to execute priority research for the Coast Guard. RDC researchers have one of the best jobs in the Coast Guard because they get to develop and try out science and tech- nology solutions in Coast Guard operations. In the next 50 years, RDC researchers, Coast Guard sponsors, and stakeholders will be able to look back as collective plank owners of many game-changing technologies that had their start in the research community. About the authors: Bert Macesker serves as the Coast Guard Research and Development Center’s executive director. He holds an M.S. in ocean engineering and has performed Coast Guard research for the past 30 years. CAPT Craig Allen leads the Coast Guard’s Office of Emerging Policy. A career cutterman, he is a graduate of the U.S. Coast Guard Academy and U.S. Marine Corps University’s Command and Staff College and was a Harvard national security fellow in the 2022-23 cohort.
